Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

132.13 – 137

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

206 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 83.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 276.5 ±13.2

6948EAGLES

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 78.91Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10914Team Variant

Season APEX 22.2Event APEX 1.31Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 79

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 51.91Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255.2 ±16

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 98.8Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11095The Flying Cats

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 38.81Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

9610Blue Ivy

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX -0.61Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6948, 10914, 5665

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6948, 10914, 5665

Auto

30.5 22%

Teleop

72.4 53%

Endgame

35.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6431, 11095, 9610

/ 100 compat

Projected

137 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6431, 11095, 9610

Auto

21.9 16%

Teleop

76.9 57%

Endgame

36.4 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score132.1pts

Blue projected score137pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.9
Score range: 110–159
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 436 vs event baseline 123.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

276.5Season APEX255.2

30.5Auto21.9

72.4Teleop76.9

35Endgame36.4

32Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	26
teleop	104	78
endgame	62	1
foul	5	125
total	206	230

Result

Final score

206 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 83.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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