Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

207.37 – 69.79

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

287 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 62.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 286.4 ±13.6

10428KAIZEN

Season APEX 65Event APEX 54.41Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7632An Kang Robotics Maker

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 130.84Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11255KAR Robotics

Season APEX 31.9Event APEX 22.12Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.2 ±14.4

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 39.97Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6988ACI35

Season APEX 142.2Event APEX -4.19Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11266Finaltech

Season APEX 36Event APEX 34.01Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10428, 7632, 11255

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.4 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10428, 7632, 11255

Auto

39.3 20%

Teleop

103.6 53%

Endgame

54.0 27%

Strengths

· 7632 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8169, 6988, 11266

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.8 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8169, 6988, 11266

Auto

23.5 34%

Teleop

32.4 47%

Endgame

13.5 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.27 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score207.4pts

Blue projected score69.8pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 137.6
Score range: 48–229
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 403 vs event baseline 122.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

286.4Season APEX241.2

39.3Auto23.5

103.6Teleop32.4

54Endgame13.5

2Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	24
teleop	183	60
endgame	37	32
foul	10	0
total	287	116

Result

Final score

287 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 62.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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