Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

109.52 – 152.04

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 42.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 392.5 ±15.3

10244WOLFS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 18.52Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9001Delta Force

A+

Season APEX 295.3Event APEX 58.68Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11164Byte Robotics

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 32.32Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 357.2 ±12.4

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 65.92Rank 8Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6417Fridolins

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 75.8Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11166LionTECH

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 10.32Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10244, 9001, 11164

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.5 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10244, 9001, 11164

Auto

23.3 23%

Teleop

54.4 53%

Endgame

25.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9427, 6417, 11166

/ 100 compat

Projected

152 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9427, 6417, 11166

Auto

35.6 26%

Teleop

64.3 48%

Endgame

34.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score109.5pts

Blue projected score152pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.5
Score range: 88–174
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 200 vs event baseline 122.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

392.5Season APEX357.2

23.3Auto35.6

54.4Teleop64.3

25.6Endgame34.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	48
teleop	6	74
endgame	0	42
foul	15	0
total	36	164

Result

Final score

36 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 42.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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