Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

113.02 – 185.3

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

56 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 61.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 149.1 ±14.1

11401Glorious Robotics

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 40.05Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

6838X-SHARC

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 38.23Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9079Mechanic storm

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 34.74Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283.2 ±16

10920F²

Season APEX 38.2Event APEX 17.86Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 146.47Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11365Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 20.97Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11401, 6838, 9079

/ 100 compat

Projected

113 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 11401, 6838, 9079

Auto

28.1 28%

Teleop

48.3 49%

Endgame

22.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10920, 8725, 11365

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10920, 8725, 11365

Auto

32.8 20%

Teleop

88.6 54%

Endgame

43.2 26%

Strengths

· 8725 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.99 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score113pts

Blue projected score185.3pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -72.3
Score range: 91–207
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 175 vs event baseline 124.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

149.1Season APEX283.2

28.1Auto32.8

48.3Teleop88.6

22.2Endgame43.2

8Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	27
teleop	11	67
endgame	5	20
foul	25	5
total	56	119

Result

Final score

56 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 61.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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