Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

139.79 – 114.5

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

167 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 18.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.7 ±13.5

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 47.87Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11164Byte Robotics

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 28.7Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 63.22Rank 8Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 195.7 ±15.8

9468Team Sirius

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 2.69Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

11266Finaltech

Season APEX 36Event APEX 32.2Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6948EAGLES

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 79.61Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5665, 11164, 9427

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5665, 11164, 9427

Auto

36.6 28%

Teleop

72.0 54%

Endgame

23.7 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9468, 11266, 6948

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9468, 11266, 6948

Auto

31.5 28%

Teleop

60.0 53%

Endgame

21.8 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score139.8pts

Blue projected score114.5pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.3
Score range: 93–162
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 291 vs event baseline 123.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.7Season APEX195.7

36.6Auto31.5

72Teleop60

23.7Endgame21.8

31Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	34
teleop	60	66
endgame	47	24
foul	5	0
total	167	124

Result

Final score

167 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 18.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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