Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

34.91 – 61

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

41 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 12.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254.4 ±12.8

10244WOLFS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 18.56Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7672SCORPIONS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 21.6Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6988ACI35

Season APEX 142.2Event APEX -5.25Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 161.7 ±14

5883Spice Gears

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 74.9Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -13.86Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9610Blue Ivy

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX -0.04Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10244, 7672, 6988

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10244, 7672, 6988

Auto

12.2 33%

Teleop

17.1 46%

Endgame

7.8 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5883, 9583, 9610

/ 100 compat

Projected

61 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5883, 9583, 9610

Auto

10.5 21%

Teleop

31.6 62%

Endgame

8.9 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score34.9pts

Blue projected score61pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.1
Score range: 12–84
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 83 vs event baseline 125.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254.4Season APEX161.7

12.2Auto10.5

17.1Teleop31.6

7.8Endgame8.9

11Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	6
teleop	21	24
endgame	7	12
foul	5	0
total	41	42

Result

Final score

41 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 12.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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