Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

323.42 – 98.21

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

188 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 68.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 423.3 ±11

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 157.87Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 111.59Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 53.96Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 373.8 ±14.8

9001Delta Force

A+

Season APEX 295.3Event APEX 55.56Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6838X-SHARC

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 38.4Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10261PYRONEERS

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX 4.25Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8725, 6431, 8169

/ 100 compat

Projected

323.4 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8725, 6431, 8169

Auto

54.7 17%

Teleop

179.0 57%

Endgame

81.7 26%

Strengths

· 8725 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9001, 6838, 10261

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.2 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9001, 6838, 10261

Auto

20.2 20%

Teleop

54.3 55%

Endgame

24.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.56 · Blue 0.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score323.4pts

Blue projected score98.2pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 225.2
Score range: 75–346
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 288 vs event baseline 125.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

423.3Season APEX373.8

54.7Auto20.2

179Teleop54.3

81.7Endgame24.7

81Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	41
teleop	104	40
endgame	44	4
foul	5	15
total	188	100

Result

Final score

188 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 68.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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