Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

167.23 – 149.09

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

172 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 7.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 279.4 ±13.6

6417Fridolins

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 76.4Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10428KAIZEN

Season APEX 65Event APEX 52.4Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11401Glorious Robotics

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 38.43Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 292 ±13.6

10213BALTA

Season APEX 217.9Event APEX 95.98Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9079Mechanic storm

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 34.6Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11255KAR Robotics

Season APEX 31.9Event APEX 18.51Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6417, 10428, 11401

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6417, 10428, 11401

Auto

32.4 23%

Teleop

67.0 47%

Endgame

42.5 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10213, 9079, 11255

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10213, 9079, 11255

Auto

26.3 18%

Teleop

79.6 53%

Endgame

42.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score167.2pts

Blue projected score149.1pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.1
Score range: 127–189
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 331 vs event baseline 124.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

279.4Season APEX292

32.4Auto26.3

67Teleop79.6

42.5Endgame42.9

0Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	42
teleop	65	85
endgame	52	2
foul	15	30
total	172	159

Result

Final score

172 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 7.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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