Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

81.14 – 31.91

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

59 – 22

Prediction correct · off by 16 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 123.7 ±18

11365Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 26.79Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9468Team Sirius

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 6.63Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

5773YAFL Mechatronics

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 47.72Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 105.4 ±15.7

11166LionTECH

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 8.92Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

10244WOLFS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 19Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10914Team Variant

Season APEX 22.2Event APEX 3.99Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11365, 9468, 5773

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 11365, 9468, 5773

Auto

17.8 21%

Teleop

41.4 49%

Endgame

24.8 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11166, 10244, 10914

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 11166, 10244, 10914

Auto

8.8 28%

Teleop

7.7 24%

Endgame

15.4 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score81.1pts

Blue projected score31.9pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49.2
Score range: 9–104
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 81 vs event baseline 125.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

123.7Season APEX105.4

17.8Auto8.8

41.4Teleop7.7

24.8Endgame15.4

0Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	7
teleop	33	11
endgame	8	4
foul	0	0
total	59	22

Result

Final score

59 – 22

Prediction correct · off by 16 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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