Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

158.58 – 64.04

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

123 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 22.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 206.6 ±12.1

5883Spice Gears

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 57.98Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10428KAIZEN

Season APEX 65Event APEX 51.07Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 49.53Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 119.2 ±19.1

11365Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 18.77Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11164Byte Robotics

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 18.57Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11266Finaltech

Season APEX 36Event APEX 26.7Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5883, 10428, 8169

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.6 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5883, 10428, 8169

Auto

28.6 19%

Teleop

80.4 54%

Endgame

41.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11365, 11164, 11266

/ 100 compat

Projected

64 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 11365, 11164, 11266

Auto

24.2 38%

Teleop

29.5 46%

Endgame

10.5 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.02 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score158.6pts

Blue projected score64pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 94.5
Score range: 40–183
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 177 vs event baseline 135.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

206.6Season APEX119.2

28.6Auto24.2

80.4Teleop29.5

41.2Endgame10.5

44Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	23
teleop	68	25
endgame	33	6
foul	5	0
total	123	54

Result

Final score

123 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 22.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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