Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

95.28 – 147.79

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

107 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 26.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 190.9 ±17.1

10261PYRONEERS

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX 3.35Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9441Aero Jr

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 11.68Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6948EAGLES

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 80.25Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 409.9 ±14.8

11266Finaltech

Season APEX 36Event APEX 27.78Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9001Delta Force

A+

Season APEX 295.3Event APEX 51.9Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5883Spice Gears

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 68.11Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10261, 9441, 6948

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10261, 9441, 6948

Auto

18.8 23%

Teleop

37.8 46%

Endgame

25.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11266, 9001, 5883

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 11266, 9001, 5883

Auto

22.3 17%

Teleop

80.4 62%

Endgame

27.3 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score95.3pts

Blue projected score147.8pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.5
Score range: 72–171
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 296 vs event baseline 125.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

190.9Season APEX409.9

18.8Auto22.3

37.8Teleop80.4

25.2Endgame27.3

22Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	24
teleop	62	99
endgame	33	51
foul	0	15
total	107	189

Result

Final score

107 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 26.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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