Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

166.14 – 175.41

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

160 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 3.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 241.2 ±14.7

11401Glorious Robotics

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 40.77Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

11166LionTECH

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 11.4Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 113.97Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 325.4 ±14.4

10213BALTA

Season APEX 217.9Event APEX 97.36Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 55.15Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11164Byte Robotics

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 22.9Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11401, 11166, 6431

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11401, 11166, 6431

Auto

30.9 19%

Teleop

87.5 55%

Endgame

40.5 25%

Strengths

· 6431 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10213, 8169, 11164

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10213, 8169, 11164

Auto

41.7 23%

Teleop

93.8 52%

Endgame

43.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score166.1pts

Blue projected score175.4pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.3
Score range: 144–197
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 335 vs event baseline 121.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

241.2Season APEX325.4

30.9Auto41.7

87.5Teleop93.8

40.5Endgame43.7

0Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	41
teleop	90	89
endgame	40	40
foul	5	5
total	160	175

Result

Final score

160 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 3.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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