Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

79.75 – 81.55

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

197 – 128

Prediction missed · off by 81.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 222.6 ±16

10914Team Variant

Season APEX 22.2Event APEX -4.87Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 47.8Rank 8Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5773YAFL Mechatronics

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 36.82Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228.6 ±13.2

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 42.53Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9079Mechanic storm

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 31.8Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10920F²

Season APEX 38.2Event APEX 7.22Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10914, 9427, 5773

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10914, 9427, 5773

Auto

26.8 35%

Teleop

29.8 38%

Endgame

21.0 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5665, 9079, 10920

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5665, 9079, 10920

Auto

14.3 19%

Teleop

42.6 57%

Endgame

18.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score79.8pts

Blue projected score81.6pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.8
Score range: 58–104
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 325 vs event baseline 120.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

222.6Season APEX228.6

26.8Auto14.3

29.8Teleop42.6

21Endgame18.3

0Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	22
teleop	108	58
endgame	65	33
foul	0	15
total	197	128

Result

Final score

197 – 128

Prediction missed · off by 81.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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