Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 76.98

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 26 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 86.2 ±15.7

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -16.03Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7729RAMs

Season APEX 19.8Event APEX -3.31Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11255KAR Robotics

Season APEX 31.9Event APEX 14.73Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 173.1 ±15.3

9610Blue Ivy

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 1.22Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

7672SCORPIONS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 21.7Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10428KAIZEN

Season APEX 65Event APEX 54.06Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9583, 7729, 11255

/ 100 compat

Projected

-4.6 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9583, 7729, 11255

Auto

5.4 100%

Teleop

-5.1 0%

Endgame

2.4 89%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9610, 7672, 10428

/ 100 compat

Projected

77 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9610, 7672, 10428

Auto

15.9 21%

Teleop

34.9 47%

Endgame

24.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.9 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score-4.6pts

Blue projected score77pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -77
Score range: -22–99
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 129 vs event baseline 122.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

86.2Season APEX173.1

5.4Auto15.9

-5.1Teleop34.9

2.4Endgame24.1

31Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	29
teleop	25	39
endgame	7	22
foul	0	0
total	39	90

Result

Final score

39 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 26 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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