Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

343.59 – 125.86

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

256 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 88.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 449.6 ±11

6948EAGLES

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 98.21Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7632An Kang Robotics Maker

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 118.93Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 126.45Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 289 ±12.2

10244WOLFS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 12.45Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5883Spice Gears

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 59.07Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6417Fridolins

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 54.34Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6948, 7632, 6431

/ 100 compat

Projected

343.6 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6948, 7632, 6431

Auto

56.0 17%

Teleop

203.9 60%

Endgame

78.2 23%

Strengths

· 6431 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10244, 5883, 6417

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.9 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10244, 5883, 6417

Auto

17.1 15%

Teleop

68.8 59%

Endgame

31.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.58 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score343.6pts

Blue projected score125.9pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 217.7
Score range: 104–366
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 472 vs event baseline 119.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

449.6Season APEX289

56Auto17.1

203.9Teleop68.8

78.2Endgame31.3

0Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	23
teleop	128	85
endgame	70	53
foul	0	55
total	256	216

Result

Final score

256 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 88.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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