Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

42.81 – 87.8

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

38 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 57.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 110.6 ±15.8

10914Team Variant

Season APEX 22.2Event APEX -3.76Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 79

10920F²

Season APEX 38.2Event APEX 9.42Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

6838X-SHARC

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 37.15Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 414.8 ±14.8

9441Aero Jr

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 4.59Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 45.54Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9001Delta Force

A+

Season APEX 295.3Event APEX 37.67Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10914, 10920, 6838

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10914, 10920, 6838

Auto

21.5 54%

Teleop

4.2 11%

Endgame

14.2 36%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9441, 8169, 9001

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9441, 8169, 9001

Auto

16.4 20%

Teleop

44.3 53%

Endgame

22.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score42.8pts

Blue projected score87.8pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45
Score range: 21–110
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 236 vs event baseline 119.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

110.6Season APEX414.8

21.5Auto16.4

4.2Teleop44.3

14.2Endgame22.2

19Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	38
teleop	17	90
endgame	6	55
foul	0	15
total	38	198

Result

Final score

38 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 57.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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