Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

115.5 – 166.66

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

136 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 33.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 140.9 ±17.1

10428KAIZEN

Season APEX 65Event APEX 56.36Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5773YAFL Mechatronics

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 38.1Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11164Byte Robotics

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 21.04Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 286.8 ±16

11255KAR Robotics

Season APEX 31.9Event APEX 13.86Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9610Blue Ivy

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX -5.16Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 157.96Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10428, 5773, 11164

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.5 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10428, 5773, 11164

Auto

19.6 18%

Teleop

50.2 45%

Endgame

42.1 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11255, 9610, 8725

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 11255, 9610, 8725

Auto

28.8 18%

Teleop

87.2 54%

Endgame

45.1 28%

Strengths

· 8725 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score115.5pts

Blue projected score166.7pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.2
Score range: 95–188
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 349 vs event baseline 118.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

140.9Season APEX286.8

19.6Auto28.8

50.2Teleop87.2

42.1Endgame45.1

0Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	40
teleop	66	113
endgame	44	45
foul	5	15
total	136	213

Result

Final score

136 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 33.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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