Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

96.76 – 116.05

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

145 – 135

Prediction missed · off by 33.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 234.4 ±14

6838X-SHARC

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 31.79Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11266Finaltech

Season APEX 36Event APEX 21.9Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 43.07Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 172 ±14

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -17.06Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6948EAGLES

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 96.87Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5773YAFL Mechatronics

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 36.24Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6838, 11266, 5665

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6838, 11266, 5665

Auto

33.9 37%

Teleop

54.3 59%

Endgame

3.3 4%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9583, 6948, 5773

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9583, 6948, 5773

Auto

16.1 14%

Teleop

67.6 58%

Endgame

33.2 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score96.8pts

Blue projected score116.1pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.3
Score range: 76–137
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 280 vs event baseline 119.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

234.4Season APEX172

33.9Auto16.1

54.3Teleop67.6

3.3Endgame33.2

36Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	35
teleop	80	67
endgame	38	28
foul	5	5
total	145	135

Result

Final score

145 – 135

Prediction missed · off by 33.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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