Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

194.54 – 67.52

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

161 – 263

Prediction missed · off by 114.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 273 ±16

11164Byte Robotics

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 22.39Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 167.85Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10914Team Variant

Season APEX 22.2Event APEX 4.3Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 286.6 ±13.6

11095The Flying Cats

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 18.46Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 19.48Rank 8Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10428KAIZEN

Season APEX 65Event APEX 29.58Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11164, 8725, 10914

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.5 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 11164, 8725, 10914

Auto

37.5 20%

Teleop

101.1 55%

Endgame

46.6 25%

Strengths

· 8725 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11095, 9427, 10428

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 11095, 9427, 10428

Auto

21.2 29%

Teleop

36.0 49%

Endgame

16.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.18 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score194.5pts

Blue projected score67.5pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 127
Score range: 47–216
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 424 vs event baseline 116.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

273Season APEX286.6

37.5Auto21.2

101.1Teleop36

46.6Endgame16.7

40Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	45
teleop	67	74
endgame	53	49
foul	0	95
total	161	263

Result

Final score

161 – 263

Prediction missed · off by 114.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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