Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

25.55 – 144.45

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 37.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 214.9 ±12.9

9079Mechanic storm

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 24.21Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11166LionTECH

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 11.76Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

6988ACI35

Season APEX 142.2Event APEX -10.42Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 209.8 ±16.7

7729RAMs

Season APEX 19.8Event APEX -0.48Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 127.97Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11266Finaltech

Season APEX 36Event APEX 16.96Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9079, 11166, 6988

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9079, 11166, 6988

Auto

3.9 17%

Teleop

7.1 31%

Endgame

12.1 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7729, 6431, 11266

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.5 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7729, 6431, 11266

Auto

20.3 15%

Teleop

96.8 69%

Endgame

22.2 16%

Strengths

· 6431 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.75 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score25.5pts

Blue projected score144.5pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -118.9
Score range: 5–165
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 245 vs event baseline 116.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

214.9Season APEX209.8

3.9Auto20.3

7.1Teleop96.8

12.1Endgame22.2

34Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	31
teleop	31	94
endgame	23	47
foul	5	0
total	73	172

Result

Final score

73 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 37.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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