Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

208.3 – 90.52

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

66 – 109

Prediction missed · off by 80.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 519.3 ±10.5

9001Delta Force

A+

Season APEX 295.3Event APEX 64.15Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7632An Kang Robotics Maker

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 136.27Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 7.88Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258.5 ±14.4

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 39.02Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9468Team Sirius

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 16.13Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

11401Glorious Robotics

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 35.37Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9001, 7632, 9583

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9001, 7632, 9583

Auto

39.2 19%

Teleop

126.6 61%

Endgame

42.5 20%

Strengths

· 7632 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5665, 9468, 11401

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5665, 9468, 11401

Auto

25.9 33%

Teleop

35.8 46%

Endgame

15.7 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.04 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score208.3pts

Blue projected score90.5pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 117.8
Score range: 70–229
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 175 vs event baseline 117.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

519.3Season APEX258.5

39.2Auto25.9

126.6Teleop35.8

42.5Endgame15.7

31Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	35
teleop	22	57
endgame	11	17
foul	10	0
total	66	109

Result

Final score

66 – 109

Prediction missed · off by 80.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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