Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

97.78 – 59.02

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

132 – 133

Prediction missed · off by 54.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 145.6 ±17.1

11365Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 28.79Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10261PYRONEERS

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX 8.15Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5883Spice Gears

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 60.84Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 246.1 ±16

11255KAR Robotics

Season APEX 31.9Event APEX 11.73Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6417Fridolins

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 47.64Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9441Aero Jr

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX -0.35Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11365, 10261, 5883

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11365, 10261, 5883

Auto

14.8 16%

Teleop

56.0 59%

Endgame

23.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11255, 6417, 9441

/ 100 compat

Projected

59 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 11255, 6417, 9441

Auto

13.4 27%

Teleop

17.8 36%

Endgame

18.4 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score97.8pts

Blue projected score59pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.8
Score range: 38–119
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 265 vs event baseline 117.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

145.6Season APEX246.1

14.8Auto13.4

56Teleop17.8

23.6Endgame18.4

14Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	21
teleop	41	62
endgame	25	50
foul	45	0
total	132	133

Result

Final score

132 – 133

Prediction missed · off by 54.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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