Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

41.78 – 53.07

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 42.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 130.9 ±15.3

11266Finaltech

Season APEX 36Event APEX 10.35Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10244WOLFS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 14.89Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9079Mechanic storm

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 16.54Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 150.1 ±13.2

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 43.55Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11095The Flying Cats

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 7.55Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 1.97Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11266, 10244, 9079

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11266, 10244, 9079

Auto

8.9 25%

Teleop

14.5 41%

Endgame

12.4 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8169, 11095, 9583

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8169, 11095, 9583

Auto

21.6 46%

Teleop

29.7 63%

Endgame

-4.5 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score41.8pts

Blue projected score53.1pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.3
Score range: 21–74
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 179 vs event baseline 118.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

130.9Season APEX150.1

8.9Auto21.6

14.5Teleop29.7

12.4Endgame-4.5

42Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	15
teleop	44	48
endgame	2	35
foul	15	0
total	81	98

Result

Final score

81 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 42.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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