Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

228.3 – 8.27

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

193 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 37 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 268.2 ±15.4

5773YAFL Mechatronics

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 42.76Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11166LionTECH

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 14.75Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 170.79Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245.4 ±13.6

6988ACI35

Season APEX 142.2Event APEX -9.44Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10428KAIZEN

Season APEX 65Event APEX 25.13Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10920F²

Season APEX 38.2Event APEX -7.42Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5773, 11166, 8725

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.3 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5773, 11166, 8725

Auto

29.4 14%

Teleop

102.7 50%

Endgame

74.2 36%

Strengths

· 8725 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6988, 10428, 10920

/ 100 compat

Projected

8.3 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6988, 10428, 10920

Auto

6.8 100%

Teleop

-13.0 0%

Endgame

11.5 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.4 · Blue 0.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score228.3pts

Blue projected score8.3pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 220
Score range: -13–249
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 240 vs event baseline 118.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

268.2Season APEX245.4

29.4Auto6.8

102.7Teleop-13

74.2Endgame11.5

44Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	18
teleop	119	12
endgame	38	17
foul	10	0
total	193	47

Result

Final score

193 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 37 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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