Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

171 – 159.47

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

207 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 61.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 523.8 ±9.8

6417Fridolins

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 41.77Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 35.91Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10213BALTA

Season APEX 217.9Event APEX 93.32Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 167.2 ±15.8

11401Glorious Robotics

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 54.67Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

11255KAR Robotics

Season APEX 31.9Event APEX 27.35Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

5883Spice Gears

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 77.45Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6417, 5665, 10213

/ 100 compat

Projected

171 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6417, 5665, 10213

Auto

39.3 24%

Teleop

84.6 51%

Endgame

41.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11401, 11255, 5883

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11401, 11255, 5883

Auto

21.0 16%

Teleop

61.4 45%

Endgame

53.0 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score171pts

Blue projected score159.5pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.5
Score range: 138–192
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 280 vs event baseline 117.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

523.8Season APEX167.2

39.3Auto21

84.6Teleop61.4

41.8Endgame53

29Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	18
teleop	122	45
endgame	42	10
foul	5	0
total	207	73

Result

Final score

207 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 61.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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