Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

184.19 – 209.91

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

132 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 543.7 ±12.9

9001Delta Force

A+

Season APEX 295.3Event APEX 68.75Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10213BALTA

Season APEX 217.9Event APEX 104.83Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11166LionTECH

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 10.61Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 389 ±9.3

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 1.99Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 140.1Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 67.82Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9001, 10213, 11166

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9001, 10213, 11166

Auto

42.0 23%

Teleop

101.6 55%

Endgame

42.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9583, 8725, 5665

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9583, 8725, 5665

Auto

43.3 21%

Teleop

113.9 56%

Endgame

46.3 23%

Strengths

· 8725 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score184.2pts

Blue projected score209.9pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.7
Score range: 160–234
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 325 vs event baseline 135.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

543.7Season APEX389

42Auto43.3

101.6Teleop113.9

42.2Endgame46.3

0Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	41
teleop	50	129
endgame	43	18
foul	5	5
total	132	193

Result

Final score

132 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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