Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

191.05 – 142.34

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

102 – 178

Prediction missed · off by 62.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 379.5 ±13.9

9441Aero Jr

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 8.58Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 39.91Rank 8Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 142.56Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.8 ±16.7

9610Blue Ivy

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX -7.47Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11365Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 26.36Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7632An Kang Robotics Maker

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 123.45Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9441, 9427, 6431

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9441, 9427, 6431

Auto

34.1 20%

Teleop

103.1 60%

Endgame

35.8 21%

Strengths

· 6431 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9610, 11365, 7632

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9610, 11365, 7632

Auto

30.8 21%

Teleop

88.7 60%

Endgame

27.9 19%

Strengths

· 7632 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score191.1pts

Blue projected score142.3pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.7
Score range: 121–212
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 280 vs event baseline 117.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

379.5Season APEX276.8

34.1Auto30.8

103.1Teleop88.7

35.8Endgame27.9

0Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	41
teleop	59	88
endgame	16	44
foul	0	5
total	102	178

Result

Final score

102 – 178

Prediction missed · off by 62.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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