Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

68.11 – 208.19

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 15.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 98.4 ±17.4

11166LionTECH

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 22.83Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

11255KAR Robotics

Season APEX 31.9Event APEX 30.62Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

11266Finaltech

Season APEX 36Event APEX 14.66Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 308 ±12.2

7672SCORPIONS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 21.47Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9079Mechanic storm

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 22.65Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 164.07Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11166, 11255, 11266

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.1 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 11166, 11255, 11266

Auto

10.0 20%

Teleop

15.7 32%

Endgame

23.3 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7672, 9079, 8725

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.2 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7672, 9079, 8725

Auto

29.5 16%

Teleop

108.2 59%

Endgame

46.1 25%

Strengths

· 8725 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score68.1pts

Blue projected score208.2pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -140.1
Score range: 47–229
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 255 vs event baseline 115.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

98.4Season APEX308

10Auto29.5

15.7Teleop108.2

23.3Endgame46.1

37Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	34
teleop	11	115
endgame	8	64
foul	0	0
total	42	213

Result

Final score

42 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 15.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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