Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

95.61 – 207.58

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

67 – 310

Prediction correct · off by 65.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 260.4 ±14.9

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 43.74Rank 8Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11365Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 33.06Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10244WOLFS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 18.81Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 422.1 ±11

6838X-SHARC

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 13.03Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10213BALTA

Season APEX 217.9Event APEX 71.9Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 122.65Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9427, 11365, 10244

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.6 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9427, 11365, 10244

Auto

23.4 25%

Teleop

46.0 50%

Endgame

23.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6838, 10213, 6431

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.6 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6838, 10213, 6431

Auto

36.5 18%

Teleop

130.3 63%

Endgame

38.4 19%

Strengths

· 6431 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.85 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score95.6pts

Blue projected score207.6pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -112
Score range: 76–228
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 377 vs event baseline 112.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

260.4Season APEX422.1

23.4Auto36.5

46Teleop130.3

23.5Endgame38.4

0Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	54
teleop	23	174
endgame	12	82
foul	0	0
total	67	310

Result

Final score

67 – 310

Prediction correct · off by 65.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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