Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155.26 – 138.56

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

188 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 68.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 280.8 ±14.4

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 20.6Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10261PYRONEERS

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX 22.48Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7632An Kang Robotics Maker

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 112.18Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 135.7 ±15.7

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 26.63Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11164Byte Robotics

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 31.31Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11401Glorious Robotics

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 80.62Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8169, 10261, 7632

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8169, 10261, 7632

Auto

34.3 21%

Teleop

105.3 63%

Endgame

26.6 16%

Strengths

· 7632 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9583, 11164, 11401

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9583, 11164, 11401

Auto

28.3 20%

Teleop

70.4 51%

Endgame

40.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score155.3pts

Blue projected score138.6pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.7
Score range: 119–175
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 223 vs event baseline 112.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

280.8Season APEX135.7

34.3Auto28.3

105.3Teleop70.4

26.6Endgame40.2

142Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	18
teleop	89	2
endgame	34	0
foul	15	15
total	188	35

Result

Final score

188 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 68.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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