Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

88.88 – 8.1

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

107 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 27.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 369 ±10.5

6988ACI35

Season APEX 142.2Event APEX -20.79Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5883Spice Gears

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 85.87Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 23.8Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 132.3 ±17.4

9441Aero Jr

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX -9.49Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10914Team Variant

Season APEX 22.2Event APEX 8.68Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9468Team Sirius

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 8.91Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6988, 5883, 5665

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6988, 5883, 5665

Auto

14.2 18%

Teleop

41.1 51%

Endgame

25.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9441, 10914, 9468

/ 100 compat

Projected

8.1 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9441, 10914, 9468

Auto

8.6 0%

Teleop

-19.5 100%

Endgame

8.1 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.9 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score88.9pts

Blue projected score8.1pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.8
Score range: -13–110
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 152 vs event baseline 114.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

369Season APEX132.3

14.2Auto8.6

41.1Teleop-19.5

25.1Endgame8.1

50Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	16
teleop	64	11
endgame	14	18
foul	10	0
total	107	45

Result

Final score

107 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 27.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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