Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.69 – 48.59

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

82 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 16.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 472.8 ±14.4

9001Delta Force

A+

Season APEX 295.3Event APEX 61.08Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7729RAMs

Season APEX 19.8Event APEX -5.03Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6417Fridolins

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 56.64Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 118.2 ±18.5

9610Blue Ivy

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX -3.58Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5773YAFL Mechatronics

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 53.6Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10920F²

Season APEX 38.2Event APEX -1.43Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9001, 7729, 6417

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9001, 7729, 6417

Auto

21.0 18%

Teleop

63.0 54%

Endgame

33.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9610, 5773, 10920

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9610, 5773, 10920

Auto

8.9 23%

Teleop

11.6 30%

Endgame

18.8 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score112.7pts

Blue projected score48.6pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.1
Score range: 28–134
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 129 vs event baseline 116.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

472.8Season APEX118.2

21Auto8.9

63Teleop11.6

33.6Endgame18.8

38Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	11
teleop	44	9
endgame	16	27
foul	0	0
total	82	47

Result

Final score

82 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 16.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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