Qualification · Qualification 22
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
51.58 – 79.88
41%59%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
20 – 217
Prediction correct · off by 84.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 144 ±16.2
Season APEX 31.9Event APEX 45.31Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79
Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 24.84Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 52.6Event APEX -18.57Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 270.2 ±12.9
Season APEX 50.2Event APEX -3.23Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 83.43Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 30.5Event APEX -0.32Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 11255, 7672, 11095
39
/ 100 compatProjected
51.6 pts
~1.3 RP (regional)
Teams: 11255, 7672, 11095
Auto
8.0 15%
Teleop
20.3 39%
Endgame
23.6 45%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 42%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6838, 7632, 11166
59
/ 100 compatProjected
79.9 pts
~1.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 6838, 7632, 11166
Auto
23.3 28%
Teleop
40.4 49%
Endgame
19.5 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 42%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.64
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score51.6pts
Blue projected score79.9pts
Red win probability41%
Event bonus sample162alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 42%, blue 42%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -28.3
- Score range
- 31–101
- Upset likelihood
- 41%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
144Season APEX270.2
8Auto23.3
20.3Teleop40.4
23.6Endgame19.5
129Consistency157
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 16 | 40 |
| teleop | 4 | 128 |
| endgame | 0 | 39 |
| foul | 0 | 10 |
| total | 20 | 217 |
Result
Final score
20 – 217
Prediction correct · off by 84.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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