Qualification · Qualification 21
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
51.42 – 74.84
43%57%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
123 – 81
Prediction missed · off by 38.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 276.1 ±16
Season APEX 36Event APEX -13.78Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 22.2Event APEX -0.52Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 79
Season APEX 217.9Event APEX 65.72Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 229.2 ±14.5
Season APEX 28.3Event APEX 22.32Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 29.26Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 23.26Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 11266, 10914, 10213
24
/ 100 compatProjected
51.4 pts
~1.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 11266, 10914, 10213
Auto
23.3 49%
Teleop
-2.0 0%
Endgame
25.8 55%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10261, 5665, 10244
47
/ 100 compatProjected
74.8 pts
~1.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 10261, 5665, 10244
Auto
12.5 18%
Teleop
40.7 59%
Endgame
16.2 23%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.59
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score51.4pts
Blue projected score74.8pts
Red win probability43%
Event bonus sample162alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 49%, blue 41%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -23.4
- Score range
- 30–96
- Upset likelihood
- 43%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
276.1Season APEX229.2
23.3Auto12.5
-2Teleop40.7
25.8Endgame16.2
148Consistency58
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 36 | 18 |
| teleop | 62 | 40 |
| endgame | 20 | 23 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 123 | 81 |
Result
Final score
123 – 81
Prediction missed · off by 38.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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