Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

189.47 – 112.01

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

232 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 30.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 428.9 ±12.4

9468Team Sirius

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX -4.03Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 139.83Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 53.67Rank 8Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 139.5 ±16.4

11401Glorious Robotics

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 97.43Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 9.05Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7729RAMs

Season APEX 19.8Event APEX 5.53Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9468, 8725, 9427

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9468, 8725, 9427

Auto

26.7 15%

Teleop

116.9 65%

Endgame

35.9 20%

Strengths

· 8725 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11401, 8169, 7729

/ 100 compat

Projected

112 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 11401, 8169, 7729

Auto

29.9 35%

Teleop

28.3 33%

Endgame

27.0 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.97 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score189.5pts

Blue projected score112pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77.5
Score range: 91–210
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 326 vs event baseline 114.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

428.9Season APEX139.5

26.7Auto29.9

116.9Teleop28.3

35.9Endgame27

77Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	23
teleop	96	45
endgame	48	21
foul	30	5
total	232	94

Result

Final score

232 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 30.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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