Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

96.53 – 81.03

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

103 – 14

Prediction correct · off by 36.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 245.5 ±14.9

6417Fridolins

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 74.33Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10261PYRONEERS

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX -0.67Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7672SCORPIONS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 22.87Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 331 ±13.9

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 78.16Rank 8Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6988ACI35

Season APEX 142.2Event APEX 0.13Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7729RAMs

Season APEX 19.8Event APEX 2.74Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6417, 10261, 7672

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6417, 10261, 7672

Auto

22.3 24%

Teleop

42.2 46%

Endgame

27.2 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9427, 6988, 7729

/ 100 compat

Projected

81 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9427, 6988, 7729

Auto

21.9 28%

Teleop

35.3 46%

Endgame

19.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score96.5pts

Blue projected score81pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.5
Score range: 57–121
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 117 vs event baseline 135.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

245.5Season APEX331

22.3Auto21.9

42.2Teleop35.3

27.2Endgame19.8

32Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	11
teleop	47	3
endgame	34	0
foul	0	0
total	103	14

Result

Final score

103 – 14

Prediction correct · off by 36.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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