Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

150.02 – 53.04

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

282 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 147.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 277.1 ±14.4

11164Byte Robotics

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 5Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 89.14Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5883Spice Gears

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 55.88Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 368.9 ±14.8

9079Mechanic storm

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX -15.43Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9001Delta Force

A+

Season APEX 295.3Event APEX 43.82Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5773YAFL Mechatronics

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 24.65Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11164, 6431, 5883

/ 100 compat

Projected

150 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 11164, 6431, 5883

Auto

15.1 10%

Teleop

96.5 66%

Endgame

35.2 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9079, 9001, 5773

/ 100 compat

Projected

53 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9079, 9001, 5773

Auto

16.7 27%

Teleop

33.5 55%

Endgame

10.6 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.07 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score150pts

Blue projected score53pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 97
Score range: 34–169
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 498 vs event baseline 107.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

277.1Season APEX368.9

15.1Auto16.7

96.5Teleop33.5

35.2Endgame10.6

155Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	16
teleop	177	123
endgame	68	72
foul	0	5
total	282	216

Result

Final score

282 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 147.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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