Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

105.57 – 157.65

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

38 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 34 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 156 ±14

10428KAIZEN

Season APEX 65Event APEX 50.9Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 29.89Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9441Aero Jr

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 24.78Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 302 ±13.6

10920F²

Season APEX 38.2Event APEX 12.57Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

6417Fridolins

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 52.11Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6948EAGLES

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 92.97Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10428, 9583, 9441

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10428, 9583, 9441

Auto

13.5 13%

Teleop

58.4 58%

Endgame

29.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10920, 6417, 6948

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.7 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10920, 6417, 6948

Auto

21.3 15%

Teleop

83.6 58%

Endgame

38.9 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score105.6pts

Blue projected score157.7pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.1
Score range: 87–177
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 107.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

156Season APEX302

13.5Auto21.3

58.4Teleop83.6

29.3Endgame38.9

0Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	43
teleop	12	56
endgame	12	34
foul	5	25
total	38	158

Result

Final score

38 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 34 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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