Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

29.38 – 16.62

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

26 – 28

Prediction missed · off by 7.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 112.9 ±19.1

10261PYRONEERS

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX 28.42Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11266Finaltech

Season APEX 36Event APEX -6.57Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9610Blue Ivy

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 7.53Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231.1 ±14.4

11365Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 61.86Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6838X-SHARC

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX -14.32Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6988ACI35

Season APEX 142.2Event APEX -30.92Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10261, 11266, 9610

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10261, 11266, 9610

Auto

17.3 65%

Teleop

4.8 18%

Endgame

4.5 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11365, 6838, 6988

/ 100 compat

Projected

16.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 11365, 6838, 6988

Auto

9.0 28%

Teleop

28.0 87%

Endgame

-4.9 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score29.4pts

Blue projected score16.6pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.8
Score range: -3–49
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 54 vs event baseline 113.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

112.9Season APEX231.1

17.3Auto9

4.8Teleop28

4.5Endgame-4.9

56Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	16
teleop	17	10
endgame	4	2
foul	0	0
total	26	28

Result

Final score

26 – 28

Prediction missed · off by 7.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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