Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.78 – 96.81

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

89 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 76.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 152 ±15.8

9468Team Sirius

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 5.41Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

5883Spice Gears

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 34.66Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7729RAMs

Season APEX 19.8Event APEX 7.71Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 238.6 ±14.1

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 60.04Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11255KAR Robotics

Season APEX 31.9Event APEX 25.17Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

10244WOLFS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 11.6Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9468, 5883, 7729

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9468, 5883, 7729

Auto

1.8 5%

Teleop

18.5 51%

Endgame

15.9 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6431, 11255, 10244

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6431, 11255, 10244

Auto

16.7 19%

Teleop

49.7 56%

Endgame

21.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.08 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score47.8pts

Blue projected score96.8pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -49
Score range: 28–117
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 298 vs event baseline 110.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

152Season APEX238.6

1.8Auto16.7

18.5Teleop49.7

15.9Endgame21.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	19
teleop	44	107
endgame	35	68
foul	5	15
total	89	209

Result

Final score

89 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 76.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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