Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.88 – 147.78

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 64.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 149.6 ±19.1

11164Byte Robotics

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 4.84Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9610Blue Ivy

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 21.68Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9441Aero Jr

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 29.36Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222.1 ±13.6

6417Fridolins

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 74.53Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10914Team Variant

Season APEX 22.2Event APEX 52.32Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9079Mechanic storm

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 20.93Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11164, 9610, 9441

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.9 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 11164, 9610, 9441

Auto

10.4 34%

Teleop

7.3 24%

Endgame

13.3 43%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6417, 10914, 9079

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.8 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6417, 10914, 9079

Auto

25.2 16%

Teleop

83.0 53%

Endgame

48.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.95 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score55.9pts

Blue projected score147.8pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -91.9
Score range: 37–167
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 75 vs event baseline 108.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

149.6Season APEX222.1

10.4Auto25.2

7.3Teleop83

13.3Endgame48

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	13
teleop	12	14
endgame	6	18
foul	0	0
total	30	45

Result

Final score

30 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 64.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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