Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

166.52 – 95.01

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

276 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 62.2 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 566.6 ±11.6

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 110.53Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10428KAIZEN

Season APEX 65Event APEX 21.19Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9001Delta Force

A+

Season APEX 295.3Event APEX 34.8Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 128.7 ±16.3

11166LionTECH

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 29.06Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

11365Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 58.59Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7672SCORPIONS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 7.36Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8725, 10428, 9001

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8725, 10428, 9001

Auto

29.2 21%

Teleop

79.9 57%

Endgame

29.9 22%

Strengths

· 8725 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11166, 11365, 7672

/ 100 compat

Projected

95 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 11166, 11365, 7672

Auto

19.3 22%

Teleop

30.7 35%

Endgame

37.9 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.96 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score166.5pts

Blue projected score95pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 71.5
Score range: 76–186
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 356 vs event baseline 104.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

566.6Season APEX128.7

29.2Auto19.3

79.9Teleop30.7

29.9Endgame37.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	16
teleop	163	37
endgame	77	22
foul	0	5
total	276	80

Result

Final score

276 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 62.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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