Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 59.51

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 34.7 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 136.3 ±17.4

10920F²

Season APEX 38.2Event APEX 6.13Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

11164Byte Robotics

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX -1.71Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9468Team Sirius

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX -15.05Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 288.4 ±14.4

9079Mechanic storm

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 9.03Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10261PYRONEERS

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX 12.29Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10213BALTA

Season APEX 217.9Event APEX 38.19Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10920, 11164, 9468

/ 100 compat

Projected

-10.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10920, 11164, 9468

Auto

12.5 0%

Teleop

-1.6 17%

Endgame

-20.4 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9079, 10261, 10213

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9079, 10261, 10213

Auto

19.5 31%

Teleop

28.7 46%

Endgame

14.7 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.05 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score-10.6pts

Blue projected score59.5pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.5
Score range: -20–80
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 129 vs event baseline 108.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

136.3Season APEX288.4

12.5Auto19.5

-1.6Teleop28.7

-20.4Endgame14.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	16
teleop	15	55
endgame	8	28
foul	0	0
total	30	99

Result

Final score

30 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 34.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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