Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

60.99 – 51.79

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

104 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 35.6 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 263.9 ±13.6

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX -10.72Rank 8Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 38.48Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11255KAR Robotics

Season APEX 31.9Event APEX 33.23Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 153.4 ±15.8

10914Team Variant

Season APEX 22.2Event APEX 23.18Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 79

5883Spice Gears

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 38.48Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11095The Flying Cats

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX -9.87Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9427, 8169, 11255

/ 100 compat

Projected

61 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9427, 8169, 11255

Auto

11.3 18%

Teleop

34.4 55%

Endgame

16.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10914, 5883, 11095

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10914, 5883, 11095

Auto

20.2 31%

Teleop

35.4 54%

Endgame

9.6 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score61pts

Blue projected score51.8pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.2
Score range: 32–81
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 184 vs event baseline 110.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

263.9Season APEX153.4

11.3Auto20.2

34.4Teleop35.4

16.7Endgame9.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	13
teleop	47	30
endgame	20	32
foul	0	5
total	104	80

Result

Final score

104 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 35.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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