Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

118.2 – 179.43

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 30.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 196.9 ±14.8

9610Blue Ivy

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 9.58Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6948EAGLES

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 86.56Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9079Mechanic storm

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 22.06Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.4 ±15.4

7632An Kang Robotics Maker

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 134.84Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11401Glorious Robotics

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 31.6Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

10914Team Variant

Season APEX 22.2Event APEX 12.99Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9610, 6948, 9079

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9610, 6948, 9079

Auto

24.5 23%

Teleop

57.8 55%

Endgame

23.5 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7632, 11401, 10914

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7632, 11401, 10914

Auto

44.2 26%

Teleop

90.1 52%

Endgame

38.3 22%

Strengths

· 7632 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score118.2pts

Blue projected score179.4pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.2
Score range: 94–203
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 285 vs event baseline 135.3.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

196.9Season APEX268.4

24.5Auto44.2

57.8Teleop90.1

23.5Endgame38.3

18Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	48
teleop	44	96
endgame	15	60
foul	5	0
total	81	204

Result

Final score

81 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 30.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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