Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

161.82 – 112.52

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

0 – 72

Prediction missed · off by 101.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 430.6 ±16

10598TADroid

Season APEX 58Event APEX 2.92Rank 25Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8595This Is How We Play

Season APEX 263.2Event APEX 105.22Rank 13Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11442FEKAL ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 109.4Event APEX 53.68Rank 7Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 281.1 ±13.3

8859Bora Robotics

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 22.69Rank 27Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10202NOVATRON

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 27.78Rank 22Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8151Wildfire

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 62.05Rank 9Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10598, 8595, 11442

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10598, 8595, 11442

Auto

32.5 22%

Teleop

81.4 54%

Endgame

35.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8859, 10202, 8151

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8859, 10202, 8151

Auto

17.6 16%

Teleop

62.7 58%

Endgame

28.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score161.8pts

Blue projected score112.5pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49.3
Score range: 88–187
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 72 vs event baseline 140.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

430.6Season APEX281.1

32.5Auto17.6

81.4Teleop62.7

35.6Endgame28.4

95Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	11
teleop	71	37
endgame	45	4
foul	0	20
total	0	72

Result

Final score

0 – 72

Prediction missed · off by 101.2 pts

Match videos

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