Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

229.39 – 110.97

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

414 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 109.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 488.6 ±14.8

6985ENKA TECH

Season APEX 193.7Event APEX 77.21Rank 4Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9089ACS Phoenix

Season APEX 88.5Event APEX 46.29Rank 29Record 2-4-1Status establishedConfidence 76

11216FLAZIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 105.89Rank 5Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 281.1 ±13.3

8859Bora Robotics

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 21.07Rank 27Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10202NOVATRON

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 24.22Rank 22Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8151Wildfire

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 65.68Rank 9Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6985, 9089, 11216

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.4 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6985, 9089, 11216

Auto

56.5 25%

Teleop

135.6 59%

Endgame

36.5 16%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8859, 10202, 8151

/ 100 compat

Projected

111 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8859, 10202, 8151

Auto

14.4 14%

Teleop

63.2 61%

Endgame

25.9 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.09 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score229.4pts

Blue projected score111pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 118.4
Score range: 87–253
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 559 vs event baseline 134.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

488.6Season APEX281.1

56.5Auto14.4

135.6Teleop63.2

36.5Endgame25.9

0Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	25
teleop	245	82
endgame	76	38
foul	15	0
total	414	145

Result

Final score

414 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 109.3 pts

Match videos

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