Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

152.32 – 137.29

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

188 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 36.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 430.6 ±16

8595This Is How We Play

Season APEX 263.2Event APEX 97.82Rank 13Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11442FEKAL ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 109.4Event APEX 50.55Rank 7Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10598TADroid

Season APEX 58Event APEX 3.95Rank 25Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 308.6 ±12.2

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 54.2Rank 21Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9232IBBTECH

Season APEX 107.4Event APEX 68.61Rank 8Record 5-1-1Status establishedConfidence 97

11010Bobcats

Season APEX 69Event APEX 14.48Rank 28Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8595, 11442, 10598

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8595, 11442, 10598

Auto

27.6 20%

Teleop

74.2 53%

Endgame

37.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9025, 9232, 11010

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9025, 9232, 11010

Auto

15.9 12%

Teleop

75.7 59%

Endgame

35.9 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score152.3pts

Blue projected score137.3pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15
Score range: 113–176
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 362 vs event baseline 131.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

430.6Season APEX308.6

27.6Auto15.9

74.2Teleop75.7

37.8Endgame35.9

100Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	37
teleop	94	72
endgame	45	65
foul	5	0
total	188	174

Result

Final score

188 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 36.2 pts

Match videos

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