Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

301.06 – 103.3

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

350 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 52.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 457.4 ±17.5

64294th Dimension

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 138.45Rank 6Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10689KAGITHANE TEKNOLOJI TAKIMI

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 46.49Rank 26Record 2-4-1Status establishedConfidence 76

7444MOON STAR ROBOTICS

Season APEX 149Event APEX 116.12Rank 2Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 281.1 ±13.3

8859Bora Robotics

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 21.1Rank 27Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10202NOVATRON

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 25.41Rank 22Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8151Wildfire

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 56.79Rank 9Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6429, 10689, 7444

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.1 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6429, 10689, 7444

Auto

67.3 23%

Teleop

167.0 56%

Endgame

62.9 21%

Strengths

· 6429 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8859, 10202, 8151

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.3 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8859, 10202, 8151

Auto

16.3 17%

Teleop

57.7 59%

Endgame

23.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.35 · Blue 0.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score301.1pts

Blue projected score103.3pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 197.8
Score range: 77–327
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 510 vs event baseline 146.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

457.4Season APEX281.1

67.3Auto16.3

167Teleop57.7

62.9Endgame23.7

0Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	30
teleop	209	85
endgame	83	40
foul	10	5
total	350	160

Result

Final score

350 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 52.8 pts

Match videos

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