Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
391.66 – 319.41
71%29%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
391 – 365
Prediction correct · off by 23.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 532.1 ±12.2
Season APEX 277.2Event APEX 239.78Rank 1Record 7-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 25.88Rank 17Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 126Rank 3Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 488.6 ±14.8
Season APEX 193.7Event APEX 108.66Rank 4Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 88.5Event APEX 73.19Rank 29Record 2-4-1Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 137.56Rank 5Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2905, 9231, 7840
81
/ 100 compatProjected
391.7 pts
~1.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 2905, 9231, 7840
Auto
76.5 20%
Teleop
227.9 59%
Endgame
84.5 22%
Strengths
- · 2905 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 48%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6985, 9089, 11216
80
/ 100 compatProjected
319.4 pts
~1.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 6985, 9089, 11216
Auto
67.3 22%
Teleop
186.9 60%
Endgame
57.3 18%
Strengths
- · 11216 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 48%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.04
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score391.7pts
Blue projected score319.4pts
Red win probability71%
Event bonus sample132alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 48%, blue 40%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 72.3
- Score range
- 293–418
- Upset likelihood
- 29%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
532.1Season APEX488.6
76.5Auto67.3
227.9Teleop186.9
84.5Endgame57.3
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 30 | 81 |
| teleop | 219 | 205 |
| endgame | 112 | 74 |
| foul | 30 | 5 |
| total | 391 | 365 |
Result
Final score
391 – 365
Prediction correct · off by 23.1 pts
Match videos
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